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KICT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
10%
EPS
4%
ICON
4%
WN2
4%
HRES
3%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 6.1¢Risks 1.52u
VS
HRESNO 93.9¢Risks 23.48u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.48u · HRES −23.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.2% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.4% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.6% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 11.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 11.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-06 12:0010-13 12:0010-20 12:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.4%————0.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0018.6%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.2%————8.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:001.8%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:003.5%————6.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:001.3%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:000.4%————6.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:007.1%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0015.6%————13.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:005.6%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:005.3%————11.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:003.9%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:005.3%————12.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:003.6%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:006.8%————12.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0017.2%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0018.9%————16.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0010.8%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0010.0%————13.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:004.5%—12.5%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0014.0%————13.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0010.2%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0016.2%—2.6%——18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:006.9%—34.3%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:005.3%————16.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:008.7%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:004.2%————12.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:004.9%—8.4%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:007.1%—14.1%——10.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:001.6%—35.1%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:003.5%0.5%10.8%——11.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0015.4%—40.4%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:009.0%14.9%15.8%0.0%—5.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:009.2%—27.1%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:007.9%7.6%1.9%3.8%—10.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0012.3%—0.2%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:007.0%13.8%0.4%9.0%—12.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:007.1%—1.7%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:006.4%7.2%13.6%11.1%—7.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:006.0%—8.2%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:004.9%5.3%12.5%4.7%—8.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:004.9%0.6%14.2%——0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:004.1%7.0%18.4%6.2%—6.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:003.4%6.0%20.2%——5.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:003.0%4.3%15.4%4.3%—3.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:003.4%6.4%16.5%——3.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:002.9%6.8%14.2%6.8%—4.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:002.1%4.7%19.0%——2.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:001.9%2.1%13.4%4.4%—2.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:001.4%5.8%12.7%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.8%9.9%11.9%2.9%—2.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.5%2.2%8.3%0.0%—1.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.3%3.8%7.6%1.8%0.0%0.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.3%4.0%5.8%0.8%—1.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.4%6.3%5.5%2.3%11.8%1.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.2%—5.6%1.5%—0.8%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00——5.0%—0.0%—
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast15%77.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
AIFS Single10%75.2°F4.0°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%74.3°F3.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON4%74.1°F3.6°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%74.9°F3.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS HRES3%72.6°F4.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
National Blend<1%75.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261021-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Wichita runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗