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KICT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
14%
WN2
9%
ICON
8%
HRES
8%
EPS
2%
Consensus
9%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 8.1¢Risks 4.05u
VS
EPSNO 91.9¢Risks 45.95u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.95u · EPS −45.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.9% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 6.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.3% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-06 12:0010-13 12:0010-20 12:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.3%————0.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0015.2%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.1%————6.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:001.2%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:002.6%————5.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.9%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:000.2%————5.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:005.5%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0012.6%————10.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:004.3%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:004.0%————8.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:002.9%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:004.0%————9.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:002.7%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:005.2%————10.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0014.0%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0015.5%————13.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:008.5%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:007.8%————11.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:003.3%—9.9%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0011.0%————10.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:007.8%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0012.9%—1.8%——15.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:005.2%—29.0%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:003.9%————12.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:006.5%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:002.9%————9.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:003.5%—6.2%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:005.1%—10.7%——7.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:001.0%—29.2%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:002.4%0.3%8.0%——8.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0011.7%—33.9%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:006.5%11.2%11.9%0.0%—4.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:006.6%—21.4%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:005.5%5.3%1.2%2.5%—7.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:008.9%—0.1%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:004.8%10.0%0.2%6.3%—9.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:004.8%—1.1%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:004.3%4.9%9.7%7.8%—5.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:003.9%—5.5%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:003.1%3.4%8.7%3.0%—5.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:003.1%0.3%9.9%——0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:002.5%4.5%13.1%3.9%—4.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:002.0%3.8%14.5%——3.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:001.8%2.6%10.6%2.6%—2.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.9%4.0%11.3%——2.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:001.6%4.2%9.4%4.2%—2.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:001.1%2.7%13.0%——1.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:001.0%1.1%8.6%2.5%—1.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.7%3.3%8.0%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.4%5.9%7.3%1.5%—1.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.2%1.1%4.8%0.0%—0.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.1%1.9%4.2%0.8%0.0%0.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.1%2.0%3.1%0.3%—0.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.1%3.3%2.8%1.0%6.7%0.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.1%—2.8%0.6%—0.3%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00——2.4%—0.0%—
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast54%82.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
National Blend23%79.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
AIFS Single14%76.6°F4.6°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 29%76.6°F3.7°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
ICON8%74.8°F4.9°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS HRES8%74.3°F5.0°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%75.1°F3.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 82°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗