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KICT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
14%
WN2
9%
ICON
8%
HRES
8%
EPS
2%
Consensus
9%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 8.1¢Risks 4.05u
VS
EPSNO 91.9¢Risks 45.95u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.95u · EPS −45.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-17T15:25:03+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T15:25:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.4% · 2026-10-17T15:25:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.4% · 2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-10-17T15:25:03+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00IFS HRES: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00IFS HRES: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00IFS HRES: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00IFS HRES: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00IFS HRES: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00IFS HRES: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00IFS HRES: 7.5% · 2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00IFS HRES: 7.5% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00IFS HRES: 7.5% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00IFS HRES: 7.5% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00IFS HRES: 7.5% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-17T15:25:03+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00ICON: 8.5% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00ICON: 8.5% · 2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00ICON: 8.5% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00ICON: 8.5% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00ICON: 8.5% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00ICON: 8.5% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00ICON: 8.5% · 2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00ICON: 8.5% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00ICON: 8.5% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00ICON: 8.5% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00ICON: 8.5% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:0010-17 15:2510-17 21:2610-18 03:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T15:25:03+00:0012.4%1.9%17.4%11.9%10.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:0012.4%1.9%17.4%11.9%10.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:0012.4%1.9%16.7%11.9%10.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:0012.4%1.9%16.7%11.9%10.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:0012.4%1.9%16.7%11.9%10.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:0012.4%1.9%16.7%11.9%10.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:0012.0%1.9%16.7%7.5%8.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:0012.0%1.9%16.7%7.5%8.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:0012.0%1.9%16.7%7.5%8.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:0012.0%1.9%16.7%7.5%8.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:0012.0%1.9%9.4%7.5%8.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:0012.0%1.9%9.4%7.5%8.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:0012.0%1.9%9.4%7.5%8.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:0012.0%1.9%9.4%7.5%8.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:0014.3%1.9%9.4%7.5%8.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:0014.3%1.9%9.4%7.5%8.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:0014.3%1.9%9.4%7.5%8.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast54%82.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
National Blend23%79.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
AIFS Single14%76.6°F4.6°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 29%76.6°F3.7°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
ICON8%74.8°F4.9°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS HRES8%74.3°F5.0°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%75.1°F3.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 82°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗