KICT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

74%

62%

60%

57%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.9¢Risks 71.90u

EPSNO 28.1¢Risks 28.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.10u · EPS −28.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	13.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	7.6%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	70.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	58.4%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	0.0%	24.4%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	39.6%	50.0%	0.5%	—	38.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	47.1%	78.0%	24.3%	—	37.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	40.9%	56.1%	38.7%	—	44.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	49.2%	83.7%	43.6%	—	40.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	88.2%	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	35.3%	74.2%	36.9%	—	40.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	23.9%	81.6%	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	46.5%	78.6%	43.9%	—	41.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	36.8%	88.4%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	39.1%	76.3%	47.2%	—	29.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	45.3%	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	57.7%	80.3%	33.9%	—	36.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	53.0%	78.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	32.1%	52.1%	71.5%	31.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	56.3%	76.3%	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	61.8%	76.2%	37.1%	76.2%	45.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	62.2%	0.0%	—	35.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	79.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	77.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	60%	77.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	77.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	77.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗