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KICT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
87%
AIFS
74%
HRES
62%
ICON
60%
EPS
57%
Consensus
69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 71.9¢Risks 71.90u
VS
EPSNO 28.1¢Risks 28.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.10u · EPS −28.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:55+00:00AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:55+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-20T04:04:55+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 09:2210-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:55+00:0070.5%46.5%80.6%48.2%58.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:0070.5%46.5%80.6%48.2%58.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:0070.5%46.5%87.1%48.2%58.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0070.5%46.5%87.1%48.2%58.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0070.5%46.5%87.1%48.2%58.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:0074.0%46.5%87.1%48.2%58.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:0074.0%46.5%87.1%48.2%58.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:0074.0%46.5%87.1%48.2%58.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:0074.0%46.5%87.1%48.2%58.9%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:0074.0%56.7%87.1%61.5%58.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0074.0%56.7%87.1%61.5%58.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0074.0%56.7%87.1%61.5%58.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0074.0%56.7%87.1%61.5%58.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:0074.0%56.7%87.1%61.5%60.0%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:0074.0%56.7%87.1%61.5%60.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 287%80.0°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single74%79.1°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES62%77.7°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON60%77.4°F3.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble57%77.1°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend56%77.0°F3.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%77.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗