KICT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

62%

49%

39%

35%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.2¢Risks 53.25u

EPSNO 46.8¢Risks 46.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.75u · EPS −46.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	26.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	5.6%	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	51.9%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.6%	0.0%	19.4%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	33.0%	43.0%	0.3%	—	32.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	39.9%	72.2%	18.9%	—	30.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	33.7%	48.5%	31.6%	—	37.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	41.3%	78.2%	35.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	83.7%	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	27.9%	67.0%	29.3%	—	32.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	17.8%	75.4%	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	37.9%	71.6%	35.4%	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	28.7%	83.4%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	30.6%	68.6%	38.2%	—	22.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	36.1%	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	48.0%	72.9%	25.5%	—	27.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	43.0%	70.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	41.8%	62.2%	22.7%	—	24.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	45.8%	67.4%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	51.1%	66.9%	27.3%	66.9%	35.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	51.1%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	58.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	71%	79.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	78.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	49%	77.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	76.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	76.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗