KICT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 15 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

57%

53%

35%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.7¢Risks 33.65u

ICONNO 66.3¢Risks 66.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.35u · ICON −66.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	4.0%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	45.5%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	0.0%	15.1%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	26.9%	36.2%	0.2%	—	26.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	33.0%	65.7%	14.4%	—	24.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	27.0%	40.9%	25.1%	—	30.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	65.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	33.7%	71.9%	28.8%	—	26.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	78.2%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	21.3%	59.1%	22.5%	—	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	12.8%	68.2%	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	29.9%	63.7%	27.7%	—	25.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	21.5%	77.1%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	23.0%	60.0%	29.7%	—	16.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	27.6%	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	38.5%	64.3%	18.3%	—	20.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	33.5%	60.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	32.1%	52.1%	15.7%	—	17.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	35.5%	57.4%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	40.3%	56.5%	19.0%	56.5%	25.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	40.0%	0.0%	—	17.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	64%	80.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	79.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	79.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	78.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	77.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	3%	60.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261022-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 79°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗