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KICT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 15 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
64%
HRES
57%
WN2
53%
EPS
35%
ICON
3%
Consensus
43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 33.7¢Risks 33.65u
VS
ICONNO 66.3¢Risks 66.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.35u · ICON −66.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 63.9% · 2026-10-15T07:49:59+00:00AIFS Single: 63.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00AIFS Single: 63.9% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00AIFS Single: 63.9% · 2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.4% · 2026-10-15T07:49:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.4% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.4% · 2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.0% · 2026-10-15T07:49:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-15T07:49:59+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-15T07:49:59+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:0010-15 07:4910-15 09:2110-15 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:49:59+00:0063.9%35.4%53.0%57.5%3.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:0063.9%35.4%53.0%57.5%3.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:0063.9%35.4%53.0%57.5%3.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:0063.9%35.4%53.0%57.5%3.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single64%80.5°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES57%79.7°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend54%79.0°F5.5°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 253%78.9°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble35%77.0°F4.0°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON3%60.3°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261022-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 79°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗