KICT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

46%

33%

28%

25%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 40.6¢Risks 40.65u

EPSNO 59.4¢Risks 59.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +59.35u · EPS −59.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	2.8%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	39.1%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	35.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	0.0%	11.4%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	21.4%	29.8%	0.1%	—	20.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	34.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	26.6%	58.7%	10.6%	—	18.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	21.1%	33.7%	19.5%	—	23.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	26.8%	64.8%	22.4%	—	20.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	71.7%	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	15.7%	50.8%	16.8%	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	8.8%	60.2%	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	22.8%	55.2%	20.8%	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	15.5%	69.8%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	16.6%	50.9%	22.3%	—	11.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	20.3%	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	29.6%	54.9%	12.6%	—	14.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	24.9%	51.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	23.5%	41.8%	10.3%	—	11.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	26.2%	46.8%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	30.1%	45.6%	12.5%	45.6%	17.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	29.6%	0.0%	—	11.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	79.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	77.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	28%	77.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	77.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	23%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	77.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Wichita runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗