KICT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

35%

35%

27%

11%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 31.5¢Risks 31.50u

EPSNO 68.5¢Risks 68.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +68.50u · EPS −68.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	1.3%	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	27.3%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	0.0%	6.2%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	12.6%	18.9%	0.0%	—	12.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	22.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	16.1%	44.2%	5.3%	—	10.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	11.8%	21.1%	10.7%	—	13.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	15.4%	49.2%	12.3%	—	10.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	56.5%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	7.7%	34.5%	8.3%	—	9.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	3.8%	43.2%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	11.8%	37.9%	10.5%	—	9.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	7.1%	52.7%	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	7.6%	33.0%	11.0%	—	4.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	9.6%	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	15.3%	35.7%	5.1%	—	5.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	11.9%	31.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	10.8%	23.5%	3.8%	—	4.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	12.1%	27.1%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	14.3%	25.5%	4.5%	25.5%	7.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	13.5%	0.0%	—	3.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	67%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	81.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	79.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	35%	79.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	77.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	77.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗