KICT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

35%

35%

27%

11%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 31.5¢Risks 31.50u

EPSNO 68.5¢Risks 68.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +68.50u · EPS −68.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:35+00:00	43.7%	9.0%	57.8%	37.8%	42.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	43.7%	9.0%	56.3%	37.8%	42.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	43.7%	9.0%	56.3%	37.8%	42.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	43.7%	9.0%	56.3%	37.8%	42.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	40.5%	9.0%	56.3%	37.8%	40.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	40.5%	9.0%	56.3%	37.8%	40.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	40.5%	9.0%	56.3%	37.8%	40.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	40.5%	9.0%	56.3%	37.8%	40.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	40.5%	9.0%	56.3%	37.8%	40.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:22+00:00	40.5%	6.3%	52.6%	37.8%	40.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	40.5%	6.3%	52.6%	37.8%	40.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	40.5%	6.3%	52.6%	37.8%	40.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:44+00:00	41.2%	6.3%	52.6%	28.2%	40.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	41.2%	6.3%	52.6%	28.2%	40.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:37+00:00	41.2%	5.5%	52.6%	28.2%	40.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	41.2%	5.4%	52.6%	28.2%	40.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	41.2%	5.4%	52.6%	28.2%	40.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	41.2%	5.4%	61.0%	28.2%	40.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	41.2%	5.4%	61.0%	28.2%	40.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	41.2%	5.4%	61.0%	28.2%	40.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:09+00:00	39.8%	5.4%	61.0%	28.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00	39.8%	5.4%	61.0%	28.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	39.8%	5.4%	61.0%	28.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	39.8%	5.4%	61.0%	28.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	39.8%	5.4%	61.0%	25.7%	36.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	39.8%	5.4%	61.8%	25.7%	36.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	39.8%	5.4%	61.8%	25.7%	36.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	39.8%	5.4%	61.8%	25.7%	36.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	39.8%	5.4%	61.8%	25.7%	36.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	39.8%	5.4%	61.8%	25.7%	36.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	39.8%	5.4%	61.8%	25.7%	36.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	39.8%	5.4%	61.8%	25.7%	36.3%
2026-10-17T04:42:04+00:00	39.8%	5.4%	61.8%	25.7%	36.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	39.8%	5.4%	57.6%	25.7%	36.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	39.8%	5.4%	57.6%	25.7%	36.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	39.8%	5.4%	57.6%	25.7%	36.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:00	37.4%	5.4%	57.6%	26.7%	34.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	37.4%	5.4%	57.6%	26.7%	34.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	37.4%	5.4%	57.6%	26.7%	34.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	37.4%	5.4%	57.6%	26.7%	34.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	37.4%	5.4%	57.6%	26.7%	34.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00	37.4%	11.1%	51.9%	26.7%	34.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	37.4%	11.1%	51.9%	26.7%	34.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	37.4%	11.1%	51.9%	26.7%	34.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	35.1%	11.1%	51.9%	26.7%	34.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	35.1%	11.1%	51.9%	26.7%	34.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	67%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	81.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	79.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	35%	79.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	77.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	77.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗