KICT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 7.1¢Risks 3.55u

EPSNO 92.9¢Risks 46.45u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.45u · EPS −46.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	4.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	10.4%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.0%	1.3%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	3.2%	5.6%	0.0%	—	3.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	4.2%	18.9%	0.9%	—	2.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	2.5%	5.8%	2.2%	—	3.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	3.4%	20.6%	2.5%	—	2.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	25.6%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	1.2%	10.8%	1.3%	—	1.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.4%	15.2%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	1.9%	11.8%	1.7%	—	1.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.9%	20.2%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.9%	8.6%	1.6%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.2%	9.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.3%	9.0%	0.4%	—	0.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.5%	7.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.2%	4.0%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.3%	4.7%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.5%	4.0%	0.3%	4.0%	0.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.3%	0.0%	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	86.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	81.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	79.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	9%	77.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	76.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	76.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261022-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 86°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗