KICT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

52%

40%

38%

24%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.0¢Risks 41.00u

EPSNO 59.0¢Risks 59.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +59.00u · EPS −59.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	0.9%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	48.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	3.4%	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	0.8%	41.3%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	20.4%	25.7%	0.4%	—	20.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	24.3%	42.7%	35.7%	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	7.0%	40.9%	16.4%	—	17.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	49.2%	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	28.8%	39.7%	19.5%	—	15.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	61.3%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	17.3%	40.1%	25.1%	—	11.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	11.9%	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	27.7%	46.5%	16.7%	—	16.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	22.9%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	27.4%	40.9%	16.6%	—	11.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	21.0%	36.1%	30.9%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	33.9%	33.9%	15.9%	35.7%	20.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	37.2%	—	—	14.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	58%	80.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	79.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	40%	78.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	78.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	26%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	77.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗