KICT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

52%

40%

38%

24%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.0¢Risks 41.00u

EPSNO 59.0¢Risks 59.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +59.00u · EPS −59.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:44+00:00	47.9%	30.9%	57.0%	27.7%	16.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	47.9%	30.9%	57.0%	27.8%	16.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:37+00:00	47.9%	27.1%	57.0%	27.8%	16.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	47.9%	27.1%	57.0%	27.8%	16.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	47.9%	27.1%	57.0%	27.8%	16.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	47.9%	27.1%	68.8%	27.8%	16.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	47.9%	27.1%	68.8%	27.8%	16.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	47.9%	27.1%	68.8%	27.8%	16.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:09+00:00	52.1%	27.1%	68.8%	27.8%	49.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00	52.1%	27.1%	68.8%	27.8%	49.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	52.1%	27.1%	68.8%	27.8%	49.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	52.1%	27.1%	68.8%	27.8%	49.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	52.1%	27.1%	68.8%	44.5%	49.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	52.1%	27.1%	76.0%	44.5%	49.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	52.1%	27.1%	76.0%	44.5%	49.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	52.1%	27.1%	76.0%	44.5%	49.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	53.5%	27.1%	76.0%	44.5%	49.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	53.5%	27.1%	76.0%	44.5%	49.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	53.5%	27.1%	76.0%	44.5%	49.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	53.5%	27.1%	76.0%	44.5%	49.6%
2026-10-17T04:42:05+00:00	53.5%	27.1%	76.0%	44.5%	49.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	53.5%	27.1%	74.8%	44.5%	49.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	53.5%	27.1%	74.8%	44.5%	49.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	53.5%	27.1%	74.8%	44.5%	49.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:00	63.7%	27.1%	74.8%	43.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	63.7%	27.1%	74.8%	43.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	63.7%	27.1%	74.8%	43.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	63.7%	27.1%	74.8%	43.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	63.7%	27.1%	74.8%	43.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00	63.7%	29.6%	70.4%	43.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	63.7%	29.6%	70.4%	43.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	63.7%	29.6%	70.4%	43.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	52.9%	29.6%	70.4%	43.5%	49.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	52.9%	29.7%	70.3%	43.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	52.9%	23.9%	70.3%	43.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	52.9%	23.9%	70.3%	43.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	52.9%	23.9%	65.8%	43.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	52.9%	23.9%	65.8%	43.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	52.9%	23.9%	65.8%	43.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	52.9%	23.9%	65.8%	43.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	53.7%	23.9%	65.8%	30.3%	28.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	53.7%	23.9%	65.8%	30.3%	28.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	53.7%	23.9%	65.8%	30.3%	28.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	53.7%	23.9%	65.8%	30.3%	28.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	53.7%	23.9%	60.1%	30.3%	28.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	53.7%	23.9%	60.1%	30.3%	28.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	53.7%	23.9%	60.1%	30.3%	28.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	53.7%	23.9%	60.1%	30.3%	28.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	55.1%	23.9%	60.1%	30.3%	28.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	55.1%	23.9%	60.1%	30.3%	28.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	55.1%	23.9%	60.1%	30.3%	28.8%
2026-10-18T04:14:19+00:00	55.1%	23.9%	60.1%	30.3%	28.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	55.1%	23.9%	66.5%	30.3%	28.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	55.1%	23.9%	66.5%	30.3%	28.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	55.1%	23.9%	66.5%	30.3%	28.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	55.1%	23.9%	66.5%	30.3%	28.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:30+00:00	54.0%	23.9%	66.5%	29.6%	49.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	54.0%	23.9%	66.5%	29.6%	49.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	54.0%	23.9%	66.5%	29.6%	49.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	54.0%	23.9%	66.5%	29.6%	49.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:53+00:00	54.0%	17.5%	59.6%	29.6%	49.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	54.0%	17.5%	59.6%	29.6%	49.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:48+00:00	54.0%	17.5%	59.6%	29.6%	49.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	54.0%	17.5%	59.6%	29.6%	49.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	53.2%	17.5%	59.6%	29.6%	49.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:59+00:00	53.2%	17.5%	59.6%	29.6%	49.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	53.2%	16.7%	59.6%	29.6%	49.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	53.2%	16.7%	59.6%	29.6%	49.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	53.2%	16.7%	61.5%	29.6%	49.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:31+00:00	53.2%	16.7%	61.5%	29.6%	49.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	53.2%	16.7%	61.5%	29.6%	49.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	49.2%	16.7%	61.5%	22.4%	38.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	49.2%	16.7%	61.5%	22.4%	38.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	49.2%	16.7%	61.5%	22.4%	38.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	49.2%	16.7%	61.5%	22.4%	38.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	49.2%	16.7%	61.5%	22.4%	38.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	49.2%	16.7%	54.8%	22.4%	38.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	49.2%	16.7%	54.8%	22.4%	38.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	49.2%	16.7%	54.8%	22.4%	38.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	52.4%	16.7%	54.8%	22.4%	38.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	52.4%	16.7%	54.8%	22.4%	38.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	52.4%	16.7%	54.8%	22.4%	38.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	52.4%	16.7%	54.8%	22.4%	38.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:08+00:00	52.4%	16.7%	54.8%	22.4%	38.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	52.4%	16.7%	60.6%	22.4%	38.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	52.4%	16.7%	60.6%	22.4%	38.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	52.4%	16.7%	60.6%	22.4%	38.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00	55.2%	16.7%	60.6%	32.3%	41.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	55.2%	16.7%	60.6%	32.3%	41.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	55.2%	16.7%	60.6%	32.3%	41.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	55.2%	16.7%	60.6%	32.3%	41.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00	55.2%	16.7%	60.6%	32.3%	41.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00	55.2%	16.6%	55.3%	32.3%	41.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	55.2%	16.6%	55.3%	32.3%	41.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	55.2%	16.6%	55.3%	32.3%	41.9%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	47.4%	16.6%	55.3%	32.3%	41.9%
2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00	47.4%	16.6%	55.3%	32.3%	41.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00	47.4%	15.9%	55.3%	32.3%	41.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	47.4%	15.9%	55.3%	32.3%	41.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	47.4%	15.9%	55.3%	32.3%	41.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	47.4%	15.9%	45.7%	32.3%	41.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	47.4%	15.9%	45.7%	32.3%	41.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00	47.4%	15.9%	45.7%	32.3%	41.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	43.9%	15.9%	45.7%	24.8%	42.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	43.9%	15.9%	45.7%	24.8%	42.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	43.9%	15.9%	45.7%	24.8%	42.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	43.9%	15.9%	45.7%	24.8%	42.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	43.9%	15.9%	45.7%	24.8%	42.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	43.9%	15.9%	42.5%	24.8%	42.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	43.9%	15.9%	42.5%	24.8%	42.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	43.9%	15.9%	42.5%	24.8%	42.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	51.7%	15.9%	42.5%	24.8%	42.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	51.7%	15.9%	42.5%	24.8%	42.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	51.7%	15.9%	42.5%	24.8%	42.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:56+00:00	51.7%	15.9%	42.5%	24.8%	42.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	51.7%	15.9%	42.5%	24.8%	42.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	51.7%	15.9%	62.6%	24.8%	42.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	51.7%	15.9%	62.6%	24.8%	42.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	51.7%	15.9%	62.6%	24.8%	42.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	51.9%	15.9%	62.6%	24.8%	40.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	51.9%	15.9%	62.6%	24.8%	40.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	51.9%	15.9%	62.6%	24.8%	40.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	51.9%	15.9%	62.6%	24.8%	40.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00	51.9%	23.7%	58.3%	37.7%	40.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	51.9%	23.7%	58.3%	37.7%	40.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	51.9%	23.7%	58.3%	37.7%	40.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	51.9%	23.7%	58.3%	37.7%	40.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00	51.9%	23.7%	58.3%	37.7%	40.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	51.9%	23.7%	58.3%	37.7%	40.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	58%	80.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	79.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	40%	78.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	78.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	26%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	77.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗