KICT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

38%

38%

32%

15%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 34.9¢Risks 34.85u

EPSNO 65.1¢Risks 65.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +65.15u · EPS −65.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	9.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	12.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	1.6%	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	0.3%	28.8%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	11.9%	15.8%	0.1%	—	12.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	14.4%	29.1%	23.2%	—	10.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	3.2%	27.0%	8.7%	—	9.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	34.1%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	16.9%	25.5%	10.4%	—	8.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	45.1%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	8.7%	25.1%	13.8%	—	5.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	5.4%	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	15.1%	29.9%	8.0%	—	8.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	11.6%	24.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	14.4%	24.4%	7.6%	—	5.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	20.3%	16.5%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	18.3%	18.3%	6.8%	19.7%	9.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	20.4%	—	—	5.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	82.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
ICON	38%	79.4°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	79.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	78.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	77.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗