KICT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

15%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 8.9¢Risks 4.47u

EPSNO 91.0¢Risks 45.52u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.52u · EPS −45.52u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	0.0%	10.8%	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	3.0%	4.4%	0.0%	—	3.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	3.6%	10.0%	7.1%	—	2.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.4%	8.4%	1.7%	—	1.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	11.6%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	3.9%	7.2%	2.0%	—	1.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	17.3%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	1.4%	6.6%	2.7%	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.7%	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	2.8%	8.0%	1.1%	—	1.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.8%	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.3%	5.3%	0.9%	—	0.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	3.8%	2.7%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	3.0%	3.0%	0.7%	3.4%	1.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	3.4%	—	—	0.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	80.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	80.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	8%	75.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	76.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	76.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261023-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 86°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗