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KICT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
16%
WN2
15%
ICON
8%
HRES
8%
EPS
2%
Consensus
10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 8.9¢Risks 4.47u
VS
EPSNO 91.0¢Risks 45.52u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.52u · EPS −45.52u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 15.0% · 2026-10-17T15:25:04+00:00AIFS Single: 15.0% · 2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00AIFS Single: 15.0% · 2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00AIFS Single: 15.0% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00AIFS Single: 15.0% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00AIFS Single: 15.0% · 2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T15:25:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.7% · 2026-10-17T15:25:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.7% · 2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.0% · 2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.0% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.0% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.0% · 2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.0% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.0% · 2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.0% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.0% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00IFS HRES: 14.1% · 2026-10-17T15:25:04+00:00IFS HRES: 14.1% · 2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00IFS HRES: 14.1% · 2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00IFS HRES: 14.1% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00IFS HRES: 14.1% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00IFS HRES: 14.1% · 2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-17T15:25:04+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:0010-17 15:2510-17 21:2610-18 03:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T15:25:04+00:0015.0%1.5%22.7%14.1%19.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:0015.0%1.5%22.7%14.1%19.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:0015.0%1.5%19.0%14.1%19.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:0015.0%1.5%19.0%14.1%19.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:0015.0%1.5%19.0%14.1%19.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:0015.0%1.5%19.0%14.1%19.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:0015.5%1.5%19.0%7.7%8.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:0015.5%1.5%19.0%7.7%8.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:0015.5%1.5%19.0%7.7%8.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:0015.5%1.5%19.0%7.7%8.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:0015.5%1.5%15.3%7.7%8.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:0015.5%1.5%15.3%7.7%8.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:0015.5%1.5%15.3%7.7%8.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:0015.5%1.5%15.3%7.7%8.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:0016.4%1.5%15.3%7.7%8.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:0016.4%1.5%15.3%7.7%8.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:0016.4%1.5%15.3%7.7%8.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%86.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
AIFS Single16%80.2°F5.4°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 215%80.7°F4.7°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
National Blend15%82.0°F3.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON8%75.5°F7.2°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS HRES8%76.1°F6.6°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%76.6°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261023-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 86°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗