WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KICT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 19:11 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
8%
HRES
5%
WN2
4%
AIFS
4%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 4.0¢Risks 1.00u
VS
EPSNO 96.0¢Risks 24.00u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +24.00u · EPS −24.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-08 12:0010-14 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:002.3%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.0%————0.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.7%————0.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:001.2%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:001.0%————0.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:001.9%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:000.1%————0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:000.0%————0.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.7%————0.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.0%————0.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.2%————1.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.4%————0.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.2%————0.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.3%—0.0%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.1%—0.0%——0.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:002.2%—6.4%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:003.6%————0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.2%—0.9%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:002.2%————0.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:001.2%—0.0%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.4%—0.0%——0.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:002.0%—0.7%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.5%0.0%2.8%——0.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.7%—3.1%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.8%0.5%0.8%0.0%—0.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.8%—0.8%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:001.5%0.6%2.2%1.4%—0.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.6%—2.7%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.5%0.0%1.6%0.2%—0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.5%—2.4%——0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.4%0.5%1.2%0.2%—0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.3%—3.9%——0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.9%0.3%—0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%1.3%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.3%1.1%0.1%—0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.7%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.5%0.1%—0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.3%0.2%——0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%0.2%0.0%0.2%0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.2%——0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast28%86.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
ICON8%79.4°F7.2°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES5%78.4°F6.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%81.4°F4.7°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
AIFS Single4%79.9°F5.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
National Blend1%82.0°F3.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%76.6°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261023-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Wichita · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗