KICT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 19:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 4.0¢Risks 1.00u

EPSNO 96.0¢Risks 24.00u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +24.00u · EPS −24.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:05+00:00	4.9%	0.3%	10.5%	4.6%	15.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	4.9%	0.3%	9.8%	4.6%	15.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	4.9%	0.3%	9.8%	4.6%	15.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:00	6.7%	0.3%	9.8%	4.6%	7.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	6.7%	0.3%	9.8%	4.6%	7.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	6.7%	0.3%	9.8%	4.6%	7.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	6.7%	0.3%	9.8%	4.6%	7.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	6.7%	0.3%	9.8%	4.6%	7.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00	6.7%	0.1%	5.4%	4.6%	7.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	6.7%	0.1%	5.4%	4.6%	7.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	6.7%	0.1%	5.4%	4.6%	7.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	3.8%	0.1%	5.4%	4.9%	7.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	3.8%	0.2%	5.5%	4.6%	7.9%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	3.8%	0.1%	5.5%	4.6%	7.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	3.8%	0.1%	5.5%	4.6%	7.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	3.8%	0.1%	4.2%	4.6%	7.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	3.8%	0.1%	4.2%	4.6%	7.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	3.8%	0.1%	4.2%	4.6%	7.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	3.8%	0.1%	4.2%	4.6%	7.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	28%	86.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	8%	79.4°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	78.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	81.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	79.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	76.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261023-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Wichita · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗