KICT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

64%

52%

45%

42%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.6¢Risks 57.65u

HRESNO 42.4¢Risks 42.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.35u · HRES −42.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	50.0%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	37.4%	0.7%	33.6%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	9.0%	63.8%	1.1%	—	23.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	41.3%	37.1%	23.7%	—	22.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	33.7%	56.8%	41.7%	—	21.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	41.3%	54.8%	30.9%	—	27.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	30.8%	34.5%	33.8%	—	20.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	14.2%	57.6%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.8%	48.2%	67.0%	36.3%	55.2%	33.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	65.8%	—	—	31.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	79.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	78.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	52%	76.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	76.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	75.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗