KICT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

64%

52%

45%

42%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.6¢Risks 57.65u

HRESNO 42.4¢Risks 42.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.35u · HRES −42.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:31:08+00:00	59.5%	38.3%	70.4%	31.9%	58.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	59.5%	38.3%	75.3%	31.9%	58.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	59.5%	38.3%	75.3%	31.9%	58.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	59.5%	38.3%	75.3%	31.9%	58.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00	64.9%	38.3%	75.3%	51.4%	60.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	64.9%	38.3%	75.3%	51.4%	60.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	64.9%	38.3%	75.3%	51.4%	60.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	64.9%	38.3%	75.3%	51.4%	60.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00	64.9%	38.3%	75.3%	51.4%	60.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00	64.9%	44.7%	80.9%	51.4%	60.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	64.9%	44.7%	80.9%	51.4%	60.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	64.9%	44.7%	80.9%	51.4%	60.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	58.8%	44.7%	80.9%	51.4%	60.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00	58.8%	44.7%	80.9%	51.4%	60.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00	58.8%	44.7%	80.9%	51.4%	60.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	58.8%	44.7%	80.9%	51.4%	60.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	58.8%	44.7%	80.9%	51.4%	60.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	58.8%	44.7%	71.2%	51.4%	60.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	58.8%	44.7%	71.2%	51.4%	60.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00	58.8%	44.7%	71.2%	51.4%	60.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	60.4%	44.7%	71.2%	42.5%	52.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	60.4%	44.7%	71.2%	42.5%	52.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	60.4%	44.7%	71.2%	42.5%	52.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	60.4%	44.7%	71.2%	42.5%	52.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	60.4%	44.7%	71.2%	42.5%	52.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	60.4%	44.7%	72.8%	42.5%	52.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	60.4%	44.7%	72.8%	42.5%	52.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	60.4%	44.7%	72.8%	42.5%	52.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	64.2%	44.7%	72.8%	42.5%	52.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	64.2%	44.7%	72.8%	42.5%	52.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	64.2%	44.7%	72.8%	42.5%	52.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	79.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	78.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	52%	76.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	76.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	75.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗