KICT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

53%

52%

28%

27%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 44.6¢Risks 44.65u

HRESNO 55.4¢Risks 55.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.35u · HRES −55.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	60.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	43.5%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	0.4%	27.7%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	60.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	6.5%	57.0%	0.7%	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	34.3%	30.4%	18.4%	—	17.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	55.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	27.0%	49.2%	34.4%	—	16.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	33.7%	46.8%	24.2%	—	21.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	23.8%	27.2%	26.5%	—	14.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	9.9%	49.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	39.6%	58.7%	28.4%	46.5%	25.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	57.1%	—	—	23.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	79.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	53%	78.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	77.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	77.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	75.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	73.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗