KICT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

34%

28%

26%

22%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 31.6¢Risks 15.80u

EPSNO 68.4¢Risks 34.20u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.20u · EPS −34.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	9.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	42.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	31.2%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	0.2%	17.6%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	3.1%	43.0%	0.2%	—	10.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	22.1%	18.9%	10.3%	—	9.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	16.0%	34.4%	21.6%	—	8.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	20.6%	31.6%	13.6%	—	11.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	12.9%	15.2%	14.8%	—	7.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	32.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	24.1%	41.3%	15.6%	29.9%	13.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	39.3%	—	—	12.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	78.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	77.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	28%	73.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	75.3°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	75.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗