KICT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

34%

28%

26%

22%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 31.6¢Risks 15.80u

EPSNO 68.4¢Risks 34.20u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.20u · EPS −34.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00	43.1%	26.7%	57.0%	24.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	43.1%	26.7%	57.0%	24.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	43.1%	26.7%	57.0%	24.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	33.8%	26.7%	57.0%	24.8%	9.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	33.8%	26.7%	57.0%	24.8%	10.1%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	33.8%	21.7%	57.0%	24.8%	10.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	33.8%	21.7%	57.0%	24.8%	10.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	33.8%	21.7%	50.8%	24.8%	10.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	33.8%	21.7%	50.8%	24.8%	10.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	33.8%	21.7%	50.8%	24.8%	10.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	33.8%	21.7%	50.8%	24.8%	10.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	28.9%	21.7%	50.8%	25.7%	27.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	28.9%	21.7%	50.8%	25.7%	27.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	28.9%	21.7%	50.8%	25.7%	27.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	28.9%	21.7%	50.8%	25.7%	27.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	28.9%	21.7%	41.5%	25.7%	27.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	28.9%	21.7%	41.5%	25.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	28.9%	21.7%	41.5%	25.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	28.9%	21.7%	41.5%	25.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	34.5%	21.7%	41.5%	25.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	34.5%	21.7%	41.5%	25.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	34.5%	21.7%	41.5%	25.7%	27.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	78.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	77.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	28%	73.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	75.3°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	75.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗