KICT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

36%

20%

19%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 22.4¢Risks 22.35u

ICONNO 77.6¢Risks 77.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +77.65u · ICON −77.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	25.7%	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	0.1%	13.5%	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	2.1%	36.2%	0.1%	—	7.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	17.0%	14.4%	7.4%	—	6.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	11.8%	27.7%	16.4%	—	5.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	15.4%	24.8%	9.7%	—	8.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	9.0%	10.8%	10.4%	—	4.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	2.7%	25.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	17.8%	33.0%	10.9%	22.8%	9.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	31.0%	—	—	8.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	78.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	78.5°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	75.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	76.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	66.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261024-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 81°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗