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KICT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
36%
WN2
36%
HRES
20%
EPS
19%
ICON
8%
Consensus
27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 22.4¢Risks 22.35u
VS
ICONNO 77.6¢Risks 77.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +77.65u · ICON −77.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.9% · 2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00ICON: 8.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:00ICON: 8.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00ICON: 8.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00ICON: 8.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00ICON: 8.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:0010-17 07:4410-17 09:1610-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:0036.4%18.9%35.7%20.2%8.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:0036.4%18.9%35.7%20.2%8.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:0036.4%18.9%35.7%20.2%8.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:0036.4%18.9%35.7%20.2%8.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:0036.4%18.9%35.7%20.2%8.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend55%81.0°F4.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single36%78.5°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 236%78.5°F5.5°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
IFS HRES20%75.1°F6.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble19%76.1°F5.0°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
ICON8%66.7°F9.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261024-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 81°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗