KICT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

81%

79%

74%

72%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 79.3¢Risks 39.65u

HRESNO 20.7¢Risks 10.35u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +10.35u · HRES −10.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	—	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	19.3%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	56.5%	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	3.4%	0.8%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	28.1%	68.9%	13.0%	—	43.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	27.2%	42.7%	54.4%	—	41.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	68.4%	17.9%	25.8%	—	33.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	59.5%	78.2%	57.9%	69.8%	37.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	71.7%	—	—	45.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	77.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	81%	75.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	76.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	74%	76.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	75.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	71.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗