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KICT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
86%
EPS
81%
AIFS
79%
ICON
74%
HRES
72%
Consensus
77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 79.3¢Risks 39.65u
VS
HRESNO 20.7¢Risks 10.35u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +10.35u · HRES −10.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:57+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 79.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00AIFS Single: 79.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 79.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00AIFS Single: 79.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00AIFS Single: 79.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00AIFS Single: 79.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 79.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 79.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00AIFS Single: 79.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00AIFS Single: 79.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.8% · 2026-10-20T04:04:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:57+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS HRES: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00IFS HRES: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS HRES: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00ICON: 80.4% · 2026-10-20T04:04:57+00:00ICON: 80.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00ICON: 80.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00ICON: 80.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 80.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 73.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00ICON: 73.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00ICON: 73.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00ICON: 73.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00ICON: 73.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00ICON: 73.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 73.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 73.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 73.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00ICON: 73.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 09:2210-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:57+00:0077.6%68.8%72.6%68.1%80.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:0077.6%68.8%72.6%68.1%80.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:0077.6%68.8%76.0%68.1%80.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0077.6%68.8%76.0%68.1%80.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0077.6%68.8%76.0%68.1%80.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:0079.1%68.8%76.0%68.1%73.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:0079.1%68.8%76.0%68.1%73.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:0079.1%68.8%76.0%68.1%73.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:0079.1%68.8%76.0%68.1%73.9%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:0079.1%81.1%86.3%72.2%73.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0079.1%81.1%86.3%72.2%73.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0079.1%81.1%86.3%72.2%73.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0079.1%81.1%86.3%72.2%73.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:0079.1%81.1%86.4%72.2%73.9%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:0079.1%81.1%86.4%72.2%73.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 286%77.0°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble81%75.5°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single79%76.5°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON74%76.4°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES72%75.9°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%73.0°F5.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend41%71.0°F6.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗