KICT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

47%

42%

38%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.7¢Risks 33.70u

WN2NO 66.3¢Risks 66.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.30u · WN2 −66.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	30.2%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	8.8%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	38.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	11.7%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	1.8%	62.0%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	38.9%	7.9%	5.1%	—	18.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	37.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	4.1%	8.2%	3.9%	43.4%	8.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	6.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	62%	76.5°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	74.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	72.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	71.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	65.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261026-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 74°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗