WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KICT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
62%
EPS
47%
AIFS
42%
HRES
38%
WN2
6%
Consensus
31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 33.7¢Risks 33.70u
VS
WN2NO 66.3¢Risks 66.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.30u · WN2 −66.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 55.5% · 2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00AIFS Single: 55.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00AIFS Single: 55.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00AIFS Single: 43.8% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00AIFS Single: 43.8% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00AIFS Single: 43.8% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00AIFS Single: 43.8% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00AIFS Single: 43.8% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00AIFS Single: 43.8% · 2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00AIFS Single: 43.8% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00AIFS Single: 43.8% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00AIFS Single: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00AIFS Single: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00AIFS Single: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.7% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.7% · 2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.6% · 2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.6% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.6% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.6% · 2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.6% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.6% · 2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.6% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.6% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.6% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.6% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.6% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.6% · 2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.6% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.6% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.6% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.6% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.6% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.6% · 2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.6% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.6% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.6% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.6% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.6% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00ICON: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00ICON: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00ICON: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00ICON: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00ICON: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00ICON: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00ICON: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00ICON: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00ICON: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00ICON: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00ICON: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:0010-19 11:2110-19 19:4510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:0055.5%46.7%40.7%10.7%21.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:0055.5%46.7%40.7%10.7%21.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:0055.5%46.7%40.7%10.7%21.8%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:0061.6%46.7%40.7%10.7%21.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:0061.6%46.7%40.7%10.7%21.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:0061.6%46.6%40.7%10.7%21.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:0061.6%46.6%40.7%10.7%21.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:0061.6%46.6%40.7%10.7%21.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:0061.6%46.6%4.8%10.7%21.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:0061.6%46.6%4.8%10.7%21.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:0061.6%46.6%4.8%10.7%21.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:0043.8%46.6%4.8%38.4%61.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:0043.8%46.6%4.8%38.4%61.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:0043.8%46.6%4.8%38.4%61.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:0043.8%46.6%4.8%38.4%61.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:0043.8%46.6%4.8%38.4%61.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:0043.8%46.6%5.6%38.4%61.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:0043.8%46.6%5.6%38.4%61.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:0043.8%46.6%5.6%38.4%61.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:0042.4%46.6%5.6%38.4%61.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:0042.4%46.6%5.6%38.4%61.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:0042.4%46.6%5.6%38.4%61.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON62%76.5°F10.0°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
National Blend52%74.0°F8.8°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble47%73.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single42%72.4°F5.7°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
IFS HRES38%71.6°F6.4°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 26%65.4°F5.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261026-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 74°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗