KICT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

37%

27%

16%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 23.9¢Risks 23.90u

HRESNO 76.1¢Risks 76.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.10u · HRES −76.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	20.6%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	4.8%	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	6.5%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	0.7%	48.6%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	26.3%	3.9%	2.3%	—	10.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	3.9%	1.7%	29.7%	3.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	2.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	76.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	74.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	73.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	27%	72.1°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	16%	65.7°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	65.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261026-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 76°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗