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KICT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
42%
EPS
37%
WN2
27%
ICON
16%
HRES
6%
Consensus
26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 23.9¢Risks 23.90u
VS
HRESNO 76.1¢Risks 76.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.10u · HRES −76.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 41.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00AIFS Single: 41.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 41.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 41.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 41.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00IFS HRES: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00IFS HRES: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:0041.7%36.6%26.7%6.1%16.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0041.7%36.6%26.7%6.1%16.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0041.7%36.6%26.7%6.1%16.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0041.7%36.6%26.7%6.1%16.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:0041.7%36.6%26.7%6.1%16.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend54%76.0°F5.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single42%74.3°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble37%73.3°F6.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 227%72.1°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
ICON16%65.7°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES6%65.5°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261026-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 76°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗