KIND / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

54%

38%

37%

14%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 51.0¢Risks 51.00u

ICONNO 49.0¢Risks 49.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.00u · ICON −49.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	91.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	76.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	99.6%	—	—	77.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	80.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	86.0%	—	—	79.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	40.7%	—	—	74.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	49.4%	—	—	88.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	88.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	99.3%	82.4%	—	—	78.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	21.9%	51.4%	65.1%	—	70.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	8.7%	78.5%	—	57.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	46.2%	9.0%	71.7%	—	55.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	71.9%	24.8%	41.3%	—	61.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	30.4%	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.7%	85.2%	36.1%	69.2%	—	55.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	74.7%	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	79.8%	45.6%	26.2%	—	49.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	70.6%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	61.8%	67.8%	28.9%	—	39.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	51.9%	74.7%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	49.0%	75.3%	39.4%	—	32.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	44.0%	69.2%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	43.9%	61.2%	34.9%	—	29.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	40.6%	51.1%	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	42.4%	41.3%	20.6%	2.9%	26.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	43.3%	46.6%	0.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	39.6%	44.2%	19.1%	—	28.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	31.4%	40.5%	19.1%	—	2.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	28.7%	33.1%	16.6%	4.9%	24.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	21.9%	34.9%	12.8%	—	19.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	19.1%	46.0%	16.5%	2.6%	20.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	19.1%	40.3%	18.2%	—	16.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	16.3%	51.4%	9.5%	1.9%	13.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	12.8%	51.5%	9.2%	—	8.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	10.2%	51.6%	4.1%	2.2%	5.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	13.2%	41.8%	7.9%	—	8.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	88%	60.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.7832
NWS forecast	56%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	54%	56.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2916
IFS HRES	38%	55.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1475
WeatherNext 2	37%	55.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1340
National Blend	25%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0615
ICON	14%	52.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0182

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261017-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗