KIND / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

54%

38%

37%

14%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 51.0¢Risks 51.00u

ICONNO 49.0¢Risks 49.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.00u · ICON −49.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T15:11:44+00:00	47.7%	89.9%	47.4%	75.4%	50.4%
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	47.7%	89.9%	47.4%	75.4%	50.4%
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	47.7%	89.9%	47.4%	75.4%	50.4%
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00	47.7%	89.9%	54.4%	75.4%	50.4%
2026-10-11T18:13:12+00:00	47.7%	89.9%	54.4%	75.4%	50.4%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	47.7%	89.9%	54.4%	75.4%	50.4%
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00	59.0%	89.9%	54.4%	77.2%	66.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	59.0%	89.9%	54.4%	77.2%	66.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:53+00:00	59.0%	89.9%	54.4%	77.2%	66.6%
2026-10-11T21:59:00+00:00	59.0%	89.9%	54.4%	77.2%	66.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:15+00:00	59.0%	89.9%	54.4%	77.2%	66.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:35+00:00	59.0%	89.9%	73.1%	77.2%	66.6%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00	59.0%	89.9%	73.1%	77.2%	66.6%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00	59.0%	89.9%	73.1%	77.2%	66.6%
2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00	75.2%	89.9%	73.1%	77.2%	66.6%
2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00	75.2%	89.9%	73.1%	77.2%	66.6%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00	75.2%	89.9%	73.1%	77.2%	66.6%
2026-10-12T15:27:20+00:00	74.9%	94.8%	81.1%	72.8%	82.5%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	74.9%	94.2%	81.1%	72.8%	82.5%
2026-10-12T16:58:04+00:00	74.9%	94.2%	74.6%	72.8%	82.5%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	74.9%	94.2%	74.6%	72.8%	82.5%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	74.9%	94.2%	74.6%	72.8%	82.5%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	74.9%	94.2%	74.6%	72.8%	82.5%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	74.9%	94.2%	74.6%	64.9%	90.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	74.9%	94.2%	74.6%	64.9%	90.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00	74.9%	94.2%	74.6%	64.9%	90.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	74.9%	94.2%	74.6%	64.9%	90.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:11+00:00	74.9%	94.2%	76.1%	64.9%	90.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	74.9%	94.2%	76.1%	64.9%	90.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	74.9%	94.2%	76.1%	64.9%	90.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	74.9%	94.2%	76.1%	64.9%	90.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00	72.3%	94.2%	76.1%	64.9%	90.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	72.3%	94.2%	76.1%	64.9%	90.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	72.3%	94.2%	76.1%	64.9%	90.2%
2026-10-14T02:59:50+00:00	55.2%	92.9%	61.6%	51.6%	72.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	55.2%	92.9%	61.6%	51.6%	72.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	55.2%	92.9%	61.6%	51.6%	72.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	55.2%	92.9%	61.6%	51.6%	72.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	55.2%	92.9%	61.6%	51.6%	72.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	55.2%	92.9%	61.6%	51.6%	72.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	60.1%	92.9%	61.6%	51.6%	56.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	60.1%	92.9%	61.6%	51.6%	56.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	60.1%	92.9%	61.6%	51.6%	56.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	60.1%	92.9%	61.6%	51.6%	56.0%
2026-10-14T10:33:27+00:00	60.1%	92.9%	61.6%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:52+00:00	60.1%	90.8%	53.5%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	60.1%	90.8%	53.5%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	60.1%	90.8%	53.5%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	61.0%	90.8%	53.5%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	61.0%	90.7%	53.5%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:22+00:00	61.0%	91.7%	53.5%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	61.0%	91.7%	53.5%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	61.0%	91.7%	53.5%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	61.0%	91.7%	52.4%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	61.0%	91.7%	52.4%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	61.0%	91.7%	52.4%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	61.9%	91.7%	52.4%	44.7%	51.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	61.9%	91.7%	52.4%	44.7%	51.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	61.9%	91.7%	52.4%	44.7%	51.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	61.9%	91.7%	52.4%	44.7%	51.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	61.9%	91.7%	52.4%	44.7%	51.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	61.9%	91.7%	51.2%	44.7%	51.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	61.9%	91.7%	51.2%	44.7%	51.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	61.9%	91.7%	51.2%	44.7%	51.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	62.8%	91.7%	51.2%	44.7%	51.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	62.8%	91.7%	51.2%	44.7%	51.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	62.8%	91.7%	51.2%	44.7%	51.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	62.8%	91.7%	51.2%	44.7%	51.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	62.8%	91.7%	51.2%	44.7%	51.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	62.8%	91.7%	47.6%	44.7%	51.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	62.8%	91.7%	47.6%	44.7%	51.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	62.8%	91.7%	47.6%	44.7%	51.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:49+00:00	55.8%	91.7%	47.6%	36.6%	38.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	55.8%	91.7%	47.6%	36.6%	38.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	55.8%	91.7%	47.6%	36.6%	38.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	55.8%	91.7%	47.6%	36.6%	38.9%
2026-10-15T10:53:03+00:00	55.8%	91.7%	47.6%	36.6%	38.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00	55.8%	91.7%	43.6%	36.6%	38.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	55.8%	90.0%	43.6%	36.6%	38.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:23+00:00	55.8%	90.0%	43.6%	36.6%	38.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	65.3%	89.4%	43.6%	36.6%	38.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	65.3%	89.4%	43.6%	36.6%	38.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:33+00:00	54.0%	88.4%	37.9%	38.4%	19.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	54.0%	88.5%	37.9%	38.4%	19.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	54.0%	88.5%	37.9%	38.4%	19.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	54.0%	88.5%	36.6%	38.4%	19.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	54.0%	88.5%	36.6%	38.4%	19.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	54.0%	88.5%	36.6%	38.4%	19.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:03+00:00	56.0%	88.5%	36.6%	38.4%	13.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:31+00:00	56.0%	88.5%	36.6%	38.4%	13.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	56.0%	88.5%	36.6%	38.4%	13.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	56.0%	88.5%	36.6%	38.4%	13.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	56.0%	88.5%	36.6%	38.4%	13.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:33+00:00	56.0%	88.5%	36.6%	38.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	56.0%	88.5%	36.6%	38.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	56.0%	88.5%	36.6%	38.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	54.0%	88.5%	36.6%	38.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	54.0%	88.5%	36.6%	38.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	54.0%	88.5%	36.6%	38.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	54.0%	88.5%	36.6%	38.4%	13.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	88%	60.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.7832
NWS forecast	56%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	54%	56.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2916
IFS HRES	38%	55.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1475
WeatherNext 2	37%	55.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1340
National Blend	25%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0615
ICON	14%	52.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0182

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261017-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗