KIND / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≤ 53°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

30%

22%

20%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 30.9¢Risks 30.95u

EPSNO 69.0¢Risks 69.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +69.05u · EPS −69.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	6.2%	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	40.7%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	31.8%	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	0.1%	7.5%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	59.7%	28.6%	18.0%	—	14.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	79.0%	9.0%	—	23.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	31.6%	77.8%	12.5%	—	23.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	62.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	11.9%	53.2%	35.2%	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	45.9%	37.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.3%	4.7%	39.3%	12.9%	—	21.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	9.5%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	6.8%	29.1%	49.1%	—	26.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.7%	11.2%	13.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	16.0%	12.4%	44.5%	—	33.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	22.4%	8.4%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	24.0%	7.9%	32.1%	—	39.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	27.4%	10.5%	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	26.8%	14.5%	34.9%	—	40.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	28.8%	20.5%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	26.4%	27.3%	50.0%	85.7%	42.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	24.9%	22.3%	96.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	27.0%	23.3%	50.0%	—	38.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	33.6%	25.3%	48.8%	—	87.4%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	35.4%	30.9%	51.2%	76.4%	40.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	42.3%	28.0%	56.4%	—	46.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	44.6%	18.2%	48.7%	82.7%	43.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	43.1%	21.1%	44.4%	—	47.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.2%	45.7%	13.0%	58.6%	83.7%	51.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	50.0%	12.0%	57.5%	—	59.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	53.2%	11.0%	71.0%	79.7%	66.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	45.1%	15.0%	56.6%	—	54.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	60%	52.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3612
IFS HRES	30%	55.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0930
National Blend	25%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0635
NWS forecast	24%	55.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0566
WeatherNext 2	22%	55.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0506
AIFS Single	20%	56.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0380
IFS Ensemble	2%	60.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0003

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 53°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261017-TMAX-LE53
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 53°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗