KIND / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 61°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

86%

86%

74%

68%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 81.0¢Risks 81.00u

EPSNO 19.0¢Risks 19.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +19.00u · EPS −19.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	1.1%	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	4.5%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	2.5%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	2.1%	—	—	61.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	61.8%	36.2%	26.3%	—	65.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	65.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	66.3%	69.0%	55.8%	—	74.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.6%	73.0%	83.5%	75.5%	—	71.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	83.2%	86.0%	61.8%	—	68.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	2.9%	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	77.5%	89.5%	57.5%	—	63.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	59.3%	88.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	71.6%	87.4%	59.6%	—	45.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	70.6%	87.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	67.8%	85.1%	47.2%	—	46.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	62.1%	82.9%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	67.0%	79.0%	42.3%	—	53.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	68.3%	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	64.1%	80.3%	67.0%	—	63.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	61.5%	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.7%	59.7%	70.8%	62.9%	—	56.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	64.3%	47.8%	69.5%	0.0%	—	60.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	47.7%	81.7%	51.2%	—	65.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	47.6%	84.8%	59.5%	—	63.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	42.6%	89.4%	63.4%	33.1%	64.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	39.8%	90.2%	60.2%	—	61.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	39.4%	92.6%	58.0%	35.6%	55.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	47.2%	92.9%	56.9%	—	56.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	57.2%	94.1%	58.6%	69.5%	62.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	56.0%	88.0%	51.5%	—	47.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	51.6%	90.4%	48.4%	68.3%	54.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	80.8%	94.2%	75.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	69.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0036
WeatherNext 2	86%	65.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0190
IFS HRES	86%	67.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0210
ICON	74%	66.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0702
IFS Ensemble	68%	63.4°F	6.2°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1024
National Blend	52%	61.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2275

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261018-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 61°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗