KIND / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 61°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

86%

86%

74%

68%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 81.0¢Risks 81.00u

EPSNO 19.0¢Risks 19.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +19.00u · EPS −19.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:13+00:00	33.3%	79.8%	85.5%	93.5%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	33.3%	79.8%	85.5%	93.5%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00	33.3%	79.8%	85.5%	93.5%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	33.3%	79.8%	85.5%	93.5%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:55+00:00	33.3%	79.8%	85.5%	93.5%	—
2026-10-11T11:19:55+00:00	33.3%	70.0%	62.7%	93.5%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00	33.3%	70.0%	62.7%	93.5%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:28+00:00	33.3%	70.0%	62.7%	93.5%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:48+00:00	73.5%	70.0%	62.7%	93.5%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00	73.4%	70.0%	62.7%	93.5%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:45+00:00	73.4%	68.0%	62.7%	93.5%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	73.4%	68.0%	62.7%	93.5%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	73.4%	68.0%	62.7%	93.5%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00	73.4%	68.0%	65.0%	93.5%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:12+00:00	73.4%	68.0%	65.0%	93.5%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	73.4%	68.0%	65.0%	93.5%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00	88.5%	68.0%	65.0%	85.5%	73.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	88.5%	68.0%	65.0%	85.5%	73.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:53+00:00	88.5%	68.0%	65.0%	85.5%	73.6%
2026-10-11T21:59:00+00:00	88.5%	68.0%	65.0%	85.5%	73.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:15+00:00	88.5%	68.0%	65.0%	85.5%	73.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:35+00:00	88.5%	68.0%	86.2%	85.5%	73.5%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00	88.5%	68.0%	86.2%	85.5%	73.5%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00	88.5%	68.0%	86.2%	85.5%	73.5%
2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00	94.0%	68.0%	86.2%	85.5%	73.5%
2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00	94.0%	68.0%	86.2%	85.5%	73.5%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00	94.0%	68.0%	86.2%	85.5%	73.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	69.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0036
WeatherNext 2	86%	65.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0190
IFS HRES	86%	67.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0210
ICON	74%	66.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0702
IFS Ensemble	68%	63.4°F	6.2°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1024
National Blend	52%	61.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2275

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261018-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 61°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗