KIND / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

86%

77%

75%

74%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 82.2¢Risks 41.08u

EPSNO 17.8¢Risks 8.92u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +8.92u · EPS −8.92u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	0.8%	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	3.2%	—	—	62.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	1.7%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	1.4%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	54.9%	29.8%	20.9%	—	59.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	59.4%	62.3%	48.5%	—	68.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	66.3%	78.4%	69.1%	—	64.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	77.6%	81.1%	54.0%	—	61.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	1.8%	84.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	70.7%	85.2%	49.2%	—	55.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	50.9%	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	63.7%	82.2%	50.9%	—	37.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	62.4%	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	59.1%	79.1%	38.2%	—	37.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	52.8%	76.2%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	57.7%	71.3%	33.0%	—	44.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.9%	58.9%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	54.1%	72.4%	57.2%	—	53.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	51.1%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	48.9%	60.8%	52.2%	—	45.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	36.7%	59.0%	0.0%	—	48.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	58.1%	36.3%	73.0%	39.6%	—	54.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.2%	35.9%	76.6%	47.6%	—	51.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	30.9%	82.6%	51.2%	22.7%	52.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	28.0%	83.4%	47.4%	—	48.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	27.3%	86.6%	44.6%	24.0%	42.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	33.8%	86.8%	43.1%	—	43.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.6%	42.8%	88.5%	44.2%	55.8%	48.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	41.0%	78.7%	36.6%	—	32.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	36.1%	81.9%	33.1%	53.2%	39.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	67.6%	87.7%	61.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	67.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0104
AIFS Single	86%	67.3°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0188
IFS HRES	77%	66.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0538
ICON	75%	66.3°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0610
IFS Ensemble	74%	64.9°F	5.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0650
National Blend	59%	63.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1689
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗