KIND / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

86%

77%

75%

74%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 82.2¢Risks 41.08u

EPSNO 17.8¢Risks 8.92u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +8.92u · EPS −8.92u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:31+00:00	91.6%	62.0%	81.3%	81.6%	70.1%
2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00	91.6%	62.0%	81.3%	81.6%	70.1%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	91.6%	62.0%	86.7%	81.6%	70.1%
2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00	91.6%	62.0%	86.7%	81.6%	70.1%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	91.6%	62.0%	86.7%	81.6%	70.1%
2026-10-12T07:48:27+00:00	87.5%	62.0%	86.7%	76.8%	75.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:28+00:00	87.5%	62.0%	86.7%	76.8%	75.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	87.5%	62.0%	86.7%	76.8%	75.3%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	87.5%	62.0%	86.7%	76.8%	75.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	87.5%	62.0%	86.7%	76.8%	75.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:33+00:00	87.5%	62.0%	89.9%	76.8%	75.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	87.5%	74.7%	89.9%	76.8%	75.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:56+00:00	87.5%	74.7%	89.9%	76.8%	75.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	86.3%	74.7%	89.9%	76.8%	75.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	86.3%	74.5%	89.8%	76.8%	75.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	67.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0104
AIFS Single	86%	67.3°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0188
IFS HRES	77%	66.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0538
ICON	75%	66.3°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0610
IFS Ensemble	74%	64.9°F	5.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0650
National Blend	59%	63.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1689
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗