KIND / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

39%

34%

33%

21%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 36.9¢Risks 36.90u

HRESNO 63.1¢Risks 63.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.10u · HRES −63.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	0.6%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	28.1%	10.9%	6.5%	—	31.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	31.0%	33.7%	22.1%	—	39.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	36.5%	50.8%	39.4%	—	35.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	48.4%	53.2%	24.2%	—	30.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	0.2%	58.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	38.5%	58.3%	19.5%	—	24.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	20.1%	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	29.9%	51.7%	19.6%	—	11.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	27.9%	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	24.4%	45.4%	11.0%	—	10.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	19.0%	40.6%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	21.8%	33.9%	7.9%	—	13.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	21.9%	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	17.6%	33.0%	19.7%	—	17.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	15.0%	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	13.1%	20.6%	14.9%	—	11.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	7.1%	18.3%	0.0%	—	12.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	6.5%	28.9%	7.6%	—	14.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	5.8%	31.4%	10.2%	—	11.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	4.0%	37.7%	11.2%	2.3%	11.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	3.0%	37.3%	8.7%	—	9.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	2.6%	40.7%	7.0%	2.0%	6.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	3.5%	39.0%	5.8%	—	5.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	5.1%	40.0%	5.5%	9.5%	6.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	4.1%	23.6%	3.2%	—	2.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	2.6%	25.0%	2.2%	6.6%	3.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	11.5%	30.9%	8.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
AIFS Single	53%	65.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.2767
National Blend	43%	65.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1884
ICON	39%	64.2°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1552
IFS Ensemble	34%	63.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1190
WeatherNext 2	33%	63.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1116
IFS HRES	21%	61.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0449

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗