KIND / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

39%

34%

33%

21%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 36.9¢Risks 36.90u

HRESNO 63.1¢Risks 63.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.10u · HRES −63.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:59+00:00	64.0%	43.0%	63.7%	53.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	64.0%	43.0%	64.5%	53.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	64.0%	43.0%	64.5%	53.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	64.0%	43.0%	64.5%	53.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00	64.0%	43.0%	64.5%	53.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T08:03:36+00:00	59.7%	43.0%	64.5%	45.9%	65.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	59.7%	43.0%	64.5%	45.9%	65.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	59.7%	43.0%	64.5%	45.9%	65.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	59.7%	43.0%	64.5%	45.9%	65.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	59.7%	52.8%	47.1%	45.9%	65.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	59.7%	52.8%	47.1%	45.9%	65.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	59.7%	52.8%	47.1%	45.9%	65.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	59.7%	52.8%	47.1%	45.9%	65.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	54.8%	52.8%	47.1%	45.9%	65.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	54.8%	54.6%	47.1%	45.9%	65.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:35+00:00	54.8%	54.6%	47.1%	45.9%	65.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	54.8%	54.6%	47.1%	45.9%	65.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	54.8%	54.6%	47.1%	45.9%	65.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	54.8%	54.6%	47.1%	45.9%	65.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	54.8%	54.6%	47.1%	45.9%	65.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	57.2%	54.6%	47.1%	45.9%	58.1%
2026-10-13T20:12:36+00:00	57.2%	54.6%	47.1%	45.9%	58.1%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	57.2%	54.6%	47.1%	45.9%	58.1%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	57.2%	54.6%	47.1%	45.9%	58.1%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	57.2%	54.6%	47.1%	43.2%	58.1%
2026-10-13T23:13:37+00:00	57.2%	54.6%	49.0%	43.1%	58.1%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	57.2%	54.6%	49.0%	43.1%	58.1%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	57.2%	54.6%	49.0%	43.1%	58.1%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	42.0%	54.6%	49.0%	43.1%	58.1%
2026-10-14T02:14:19+00:00	42.0%	54.6%	49.0%	43.1%	58.1%
2026-10-14T02:59:50+00:00	42.0%	54.6%	49.0%	43.1%	58.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	42.0%	54.6%	49.0%	43.1%	58.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	42.0%	54.6%	49.0%	43.1%	58.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	42.0%	54.6%	49.0%	43.1%	58.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	42.0%	54.6%	49.0%	43.1%	58.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	42.0%	54.6%	49.0%	43.1%	58.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	48.3%	54.6%	49.0%	43.1%	43.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	48.3%	54.6%	49.0%	43.1%	43.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	48.3%	54.6%	49.0%	43.1%	43.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	48.3%	54.6%	49.0%	43.1%	43.4%
2026-10-14T10:33:27+00:00	48.3%	54.6%	49.0%	28.8%	43.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:52+00:00	48.3%	31.7%	35.3%	28.8%	43.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	48.3%	31.7%	35.3%	28.8%	43.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	48.3%	31.7%	35.3%	28.8%	43.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	49.1%	31.7%	35.3%	28.8%	43.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	49.1%	31.7%	35.3%	28.8%	44.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:22+00:00	49.1%	34.5%	35.3%	28.8%	44.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	49.1%	34.5%	35.3%	28.8%	44.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	49.1%	34.5%	35.3%	28.8%	44.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	49.1%	34.5%	29.5%	28.8%	44.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	49.1%	34.5%	29.5%	28.8%	44.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	49.1%	34.5%	29.5%	28.8%	44.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	49.1%	34.5%	29.5%	21.2%	39.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	49.1%	34.5%	29.5%	21.2%	39.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	49.1%	34.5%	29.5%	21.2%	39.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	49.1%	34.5%	29.5%	21.2%	39.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	49.1%	34.5%	29.5%	21.2%	39.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	49.1%	34.5%	33.4%	21.2%	39.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	49.1%	34.5%	33.4%	21.2%	39.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	49.1%	34.5%	33.4%	21.2%	39.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	52.6%	34.5%	33.4%	21.2%	39.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	52.6%	34.5%	33.4%	21.2%	39.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	52.6%	34.5%	33.4%	21.2%	39.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
AIFS Single	53%	65.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.2767
National Blend	43%	65.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1884
ICON	39%	64.2°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1552
IFS Ensemble	34%	63.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1190
WeatherNext 2	33%	63.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1116
IFS HRES	21%	61.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0449

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗