KIND / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

74%

39%

31%

10%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.4¢Risks 46.40u

ICONNO 53.6¢Risks 53.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.60u · ICON −53.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:27+00:00	78.4%	50.8%	68.1%	54.4%	28.5%
2026-10-12T08:34:28+00:00	78.4%	50.8%	68.1%	54.4%	28.5%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	78.4%	50.8%	68.1%	54.4%	28.5%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	78.4%	50.8%	68.1%	54.4%	28.5%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	78.4%	50.8%	68.1%	54.4%	28.5%
2026-10-14T02:59:50+00:00	66.8%	48.9%	82.0%	54.2%	61.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	66.8%	48.9%	82.0%	54.2%	61.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	66.8%	48.9%	82.0%	54.2%	61.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	66.8%	48.9%	82.0%	54.2%	61.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	66.8%	48.9%	82.0%	54.2%	61.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	66.8%	48.9%	82.0%	54.2%	61.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	78.5%	48.9%	82.0%	54.2%	59.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	78.5%	48.9%	82.0%	54.2%	59.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	78.5%	48.9%	82.0%	54.2%	59.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	78.5%	48.9%	82.0%	54.2%	59.4%
2026-10-14T10:33:27+00:00	78.5%	48.9%	82.0%	45.2%	59.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:52+00:00	78.5%	44.9%	73.6%	45.2%	59.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	78.5%	44.9%	73.6%	45.2%	59.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	78.5%	44.9%	73.6%	45.2%	59.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	79.6%	44.9%	73.6%	45.2%	59.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	79.5%	44.9%	73.7%	45.2%	59.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:22+00:00	79.5%	47.4%	73.7%	45.2%	59.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	79.5%	47.4%	73.7%	45.2%	59.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	79.5%	47.4%	73.7%	45.2%	59.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	79.5%	47.4%	67.8%	45.2%	59.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	79.5%	47.4%	67.8%	45.2%	59.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	79.5%	47.4%	67.8%	45.2%	59.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	76.6%	47.4%	67.8%	36.4%	58.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	76.6%	47.4%	67.8%	36.4%	58.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	76.6%	47.4%	67.8%	36.4%	58.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	76.6%	47.4%	67.8%	36.4%	58.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	76.6%	47.4%	67.8%	36.4%	58.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	76.6%	47.4%	66.9%	36.4%	58.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	76.6%	47.4%	66.9%	36.4%	58.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	76.6%	47.4%	66.9%	36.4%	58.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	78.4%	47.4%	66.9%	36.4%	58.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	78.4%	47.4%	66.9%	36.4%	58.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	78.4%	47.4%	66.9%	36.4%	58.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:13+00:00	86.2%	51.4%	71.4%	39.7%	53.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	86.2%	51.4%	71.4%	39.7%	53.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	86.2%	51.4%	77.4%	39.7%	53.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	86.2%	51.4%	77.4%	39.7%	53.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	86.2%	51.4%	77.4%	39.7%	53.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	86.2%	51.4%	77.4%	39.7%	53.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	80.2%	51.4%	77.4%	54.0%	48.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	80.2%	51.4%	77.4%	54.0%	48.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	80.2%	51.4%	77.4%	54.0%	48.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	80.2%	51.4%	77.4%	54.0%	48.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	80.2%	51.4%	73.2%	54.0%	48.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	80.2%	51.4%	73.2%	54.0%	48.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	80.2%	51.4%	73.2%	54.0%	48.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	76.4%	51.4%	73.2%	54.0%	48.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	76.4%	51.4%	73.2%	54.0%	48.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	76.4%	51.4%	73.2%	54.0%	48.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	76.4%	51.4%	73.2%	54.0%	48.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:13+00:00	76.4%	51.4%	73.2%	54.0%	48.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	76.4%	51.4%	71.4%	54.0%	48.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	76.4%	51.4%	71.4%	54.0%	48.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	76.4%	51.4%	71.4%	54.0%	48.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	78.7%	51.4%	71.4%	54.0%	30.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	78.7%	51.4%	71.4%	54.0%	30.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	78.7%	51.4%	71.4%	54.0%	30.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	78.7%	51.4%	71.4%	54.0%	30.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	78.7%	51.4%	71.4%	54.0%	30.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	78.7%	48.5%	66.1%	54.0%	30.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	78.7%	48.5%	66.1%	54.0%	30.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	78.7%	48.5%	66.1%	54.0%	30.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:36+00:00	80.0%	48.5%	66.1%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	80.0%	48.5%	66.1%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-17T04:41:52+00:00	83.7%	45.7%	74.3%	45.5%	31.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	83.7%	45.7%	72.4%	45.5%	31.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	83.7%	45.7%	72.4%	45.5%	31.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	83.7%	45.7%	72.4%	45.5%	31.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:00	84.9%	45.7%	72.4%	41.3%	12.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	84.9%	45.7%	72.4%	41.3%	12.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	84.9%	45.7%	72.4%	41.3%	12.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	84.9%	45.7%	72.4%	41.3%	12.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	84.9%	45.7%	72.4%	41.3%	12.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	84.9%	54.1%	70.8%	41.3%	12.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	84.9%	54.1%	70.8%	41.3%	12.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	84.9%	54.1%	70.8%	41.3%	12.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	82.5%	54.1%	70.8%	41.3%	12.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	82.5%	54.0%	70.8%	41.3%	12.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:50+00:00	82.5%	52.6%	70.8%	41.3%	12.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	82.5%	52.6%	70.8%	41.3%	12.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	82.5%	52.6%	67.4%	41.3%	12.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	82.5%	52.6%	67.4%	41.3%	12.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	82.5%	52.6%	67.4%	41.3%	12.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	82.5%	52.6%	67.4%	41.3%	12.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	78.5%	52.6%	67.4%	33.0%	14.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	78.5%	52.6%	67.4%	33.0%	14.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	78.5%	52.6%	67.4%	33.0%	14.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	78.5%	52.6%	67.4%	33.0%	14.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	78.5%	52.6%	63.9%	33.0%	14.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	78.5%	52.6%	63.9%	33.0%	14.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	78.5%	52.6%	63.9%	33.0%	14.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	78.5%	52.6%	63.9%	33.0%	14.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	79.2%	52.6%	63.9%	33.0%	14.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	79.2%	52.6%	63.9%	33.0%	14.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	79.2%	52.6%	63.9%	33.0%	14.2%
2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00	73.7%	46.4%	63.4%	36.3%	16.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	73.7%	39.4%	63.4%	36.3%	16.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	73.7%	39.4%	63.4%	36.3%	16.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	73.7%	39.4%	62.1%	36.3%	16.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	73.7%	39.4%	62.1%	36.3%	16.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	73.7%	39.4%	62.1%	36.3%	16.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	76.9%	39.4%	62.1%	31.4%	10.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	76.9%	39.4%	62.1%	31.4%	10.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	76.9%	39.4%	62.1%	31.4%	10.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	76.9%	39.4%	62.1%	31.4%	10.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	76.9%	39.4%	62.1%	31.4%	10.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	76.9%	39.4%	58.2%	31.4%	10.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	76.9%	39.4%	58.2%	31.4%	10.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	76.9%	39.4%	58.2%	31.4%	10.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	82.6%	39.4%	58.2%	31.4%	10.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	82.6%	39.4%	58.2%	31.4%	10.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	82.6%	39.4%	58.2%	31.4%	10.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	82.6%	39.4%	58.2%	31.4%	10.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:54+00:00	82.6%	39.4%	58.2%	31.4%	10.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	82.6%	39.4%	74.3%	31.4%	10.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	82.6%	39.4%	74.3%	31.4%	10.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	82.6%	39.4%	74.3%	31.4%	10.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	71.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	69.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	66.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	65.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	10%	63.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗