KIND / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

74%

39%

31%

10%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.4¢Risks 46.40u

ICONNO 53.6¢Risks 53.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.60u · ICON −53.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	52.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	44.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	24.1%	—	—	46.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	45.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	4.3%	70.0%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	37.6%	67.7%	5.8%	—	42.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	58.7%	71.5%	47.8%	—	39.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	38.7%	54.6%	29.6%	—	33.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	40.5%	40.5%	33.0%	—	25.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	0.2%	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.3%	38.5%	57.5%	31.5%	—	23.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	15.7%	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	38.8%	55.2%	29.1%	—	26.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	35.9%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	33.0%	51.8%	22.3%	—	36.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	34.3%	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	25.5%	47.1%	25.5%	—	21.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	28.2%	47.0%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	25.1%	54.1%	16.3%	—	31.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	21.3%	56.3%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	14.9%	59.7%	10.4%	0.0%	25.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	17.5%	62.2%	0.0%	—	23.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	15.3%	64.8%	6.5%	21.5%	16.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.4%	19.1%	65.3%	5.5%	—	17.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	24.6%	70.2%	5.5%	0.0%	18.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	16.6%	61.5%	4.0%	—	12.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	14.1%	61.9%	2.0%	38.1%	12.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	58.3%	25.3%	61.0%	3.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	41.4%	62.8%	5.5%	57.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	71.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	69.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	66.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	65.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	10%	63.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗