KIND / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 04:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.7¢Risks 3.35u

EPSNO 93.3¢Risks 46.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.65u · EPS −46.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:27+00:00	15.8%	3.1%	7.9%	7.1%	5.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:28+00:00	15.8%	3.1%	7.9%	7.1%	5.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	15.8%	3.1%	7.9%	7.1%	5.7%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	15.8%	3.1%	7.9%	7.1%	5.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	15.8%	3.1%	7.9%	7.1%	5.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:33+00:00	15.8%	3.1%	7.3%	7.1%	5.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	15.8%	2.3%	7.3%	7.1%	5.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:56+00:00	15.8%	2.3%	7.3%	7.1%	5.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	7.9%	2.3%	7.3%	7.1%	5.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	8.0%	2.3%	7.4%	7.1%	5.8%
2026-10-12T15:27:21+00:00	8.0%	2.3%	7.4%	7.1%	5.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	8.0%	1.9%	7.4%	7.1%	5.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:04+00:00	8.0%	1.9%	8.3%	7.1%	5.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	8.0%	1.9%	8.3%	7.1%	5.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	8.0%	1.9%	8.3%	7.1%	5.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	8.0%	1.9%	8.3%	7.1%	5.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	6.5%	1.9%	8.3%	6.3%	23.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	6.5%	1.9%	8.3%	6.3%	23.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00	6.5%	1.9%	8.3%	6.3%	23.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	6.5%	1.9%	8.3%	6.3%	23.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:11+00:00	6.5%	1.9%	6.3%	6.3%	23.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	6.5%	1.9%	6.3%	6.3%	23.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	6.5%	1.9%	6.3%	6.3%	23.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	6.5%	1.9%	6.3%	6.3%	23.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00	8.8%	1.9%	6.3%	6.3%	23.1%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	8.8%	1.9%	6.3%	6.3%	23.1%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	8.8%	1.9%	6.3%	6.3%	23.1%
2026-10-13T04:16:01+00:00	8.8%	1.9%	6.3%	6.3%	23.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	8.8%	1.9%	9.9%	6.3%	23.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	8.8%	1.9%	9.9%	6.3%	23.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	8.8%	1.9%	9.9%	6.3%	23.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00	8.8%	1.9%	9.9%	6.3%	23.1%
2026-10-13T08:03:36+00:00	15.0%	1.9%	9.9%	10.0%	22.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	15.0%	1.9%	9.9%	10.0%	22.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	15.0%	1.9%	9.9%	10.0%	22.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	15.0%	1.9%	9.9%	10.0%	22.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	15.0%	0.2%	7.4%	10.0%	22.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	15.0%	0.2%	7.4%	10.0%	22.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	15.0%	0.2%	7.4%	10.0%	22.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	15.0%	0.2%	7.4%	10.0%	22.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	11.0%	0.2%	7.5%	10.0%	23.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	11.0%	0.3%	7.5%	10.0%	23.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:35+00:00	11.0%	0.3%	7.5%	10.0%	23.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	11.0%	0.3%	7.5%	10.0%	23.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	11.0%	0.3%	7.2%	10.0%	23.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	11.0%	0.3%	7.2%	10.0%	23.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	11.0%	0.3%	7.2%	10.0%	23.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	16.8%	0.3%	7.2%	10.0%	13.1%
2026-10-13T20:12:36+00:00	16.8%	0.3%	7.2%	10.0%	13.1%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	16.8%	0.3%	7.2%	10.0%	13.1%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	16.8%	0.3%	7.2%	10.0%	13.1%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	16.8%	0.3%	7.2%	7.8%	13.1%
2026-10-13T23:13:37+00:00	16.8%	0.3%	10.3%	7.8%	13.1%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	16.8%	0.3%	10.3%	7.8%	13.1%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	16.8%	0.3%	10.3%	7.8%	13.1%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	7.3%	0.3%	10.3%	7.8%	13.1%
2026-10-14T02:14:19+00:00	7.3%	0.3%	10.3%	7.8%	13.1%
2026-10-14T02:59:50+00:00	7.3%	0.3%	10.3%	7.8%	13.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	7.3%	0.3%	10.3%	7.8%	13.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	7.3%	0.3%	10.3%	7.8%	13.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	13%	69.6°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0172
WeatherNext 2	10%	71.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0106
IFS HRES	8%	68.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0061
AIFS Single	7%	69.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0053
NWS forecast	3%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0011
National Blend	1%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	<1%	67.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗