KIND / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 13 · 10:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

57%

49%

31%

16%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.5¢Risks 46.45u

ICONNO 53.5¢Risks 53.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.55u · ICON −53.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	9.0%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	34.8%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	0.7%	19.4%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	31.1%	1.8%	0.7%	—	24.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	38.5%	25.4%	8.7%	—	13.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	20.5%	36.5%	6.0%	—	7.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	19.5%	24.8%	5.3%	—	8.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	0.1%	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	9.3%	24.5%	4.5%	—	12.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	4.9%	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	9.7%	17.8%	2.1%	—	6.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	10.3%	11.2%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	9.8%	17.8%	1.4%	—	9.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	8.4%	18.4%	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	5.6%	20.3%	1.7%	—	6.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	4.0%	19.7%	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	3.4%	17.6%	0.9%	0.0%	3.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	4.5%	18.3%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	4.7%	17.6%	0.8%	—	3.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	3.8%	15.4%	0.0%	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	3.5%	10.5%	0.7%	0.0%	1.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	6.2%	13.9%	0.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	12.4%	18.2%	0.5%	16.6%	4.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	9.8%	17.4%	0.3%	—	1.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	6.1%	14.9%	0.2%	13.4%	1.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	10.4%	19.1%	0.6%	—	3.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	8.9%	19.1%	1.0%	23.4%	3.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	20.2%	0.4%	—	0.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	77%	77.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	74.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	73.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	71.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	63.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261020-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 74°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗