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KIND / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 13 · 10:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
77%
WN2
57%
HRES
49%
EPS
31%
ICON
16%
Consensus
48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 46.5¢Risks 46.45u
VS
ICONNO 53.5¢Risks 53.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.55u · ICON −53.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-13T08:03:36+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.3% · 2026-10-13T08:03:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.3% · 2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.3% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.3% · 2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.7% · 2026-10-13T08:03:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.7% · 2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.7% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.7% · 2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00IFS HRES: 48.7% · 2026-10-13T08:03:36+00:00IFS HRES: 48.7% · 2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00IFS HRES: 48.7% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS HRES: 48.7% · 2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00ICON: 15.6% · 2026-10-13T08:03:36+00:00ICON: 15.6% · 2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00ICON: 15.6% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00ICON: 15.6% · 2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:0010-13 08:0310-13 09:3410-13 10:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T08:03:36+00:0077.3%31.3%56.7%48.7%15.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:0077.3%31.3%56.7%48.7%15.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:0077.3%31.3%56.7%48.7%15.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:0077.3%31.3%56.7%48.7%15.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single77%77.7°F5.6°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 257%74.4°F5.3°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending
National Blend55%74.0°F4.4°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
IFS HRES49%73.3°F6.3°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble31%71.5°F4.1°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
ICON16%63.5°F9.9°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261020-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 74°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗