KIND / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

50%

17%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.5¢Risks 33.55u

ICONNO 66.5¢Risks 66.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.45u · ICON −66.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	6.7%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	12.2%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	5.9%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	9.0%	28.8%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	28.6%	38.2%	2.1%	—	18.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	44.2%	29.1%	8.4%	—	19.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	34.4%	33.0%	14.2%	—	24.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	24.2%	29.5%	14.0%	—	14.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	0.5%	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.3%	16.2%	28.6%	9.3%	—	20.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	6.1%	29.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	8.6%	27.7%	6.8%	—	16.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	5.0%	31.8%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	3.9%	29.7%	3.0%	—	9.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	5.3%	29.2%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	2.9%	29.6%	2.1%	—	8.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	5.1%	33.5%	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	5.8%	27.6%	1.5%	—	5.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	18.3%	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.3%	27.3%	35.1%	1.9%	—	13.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	26.7%	36.7%	0.0%	—	9.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	18.3%	36.3%	2.9%	0.0%	10.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	29.3%	42.8%	3.7%	—	12.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	27.6%	42.6%	5.2%	46.3%	16.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	43.6%	3.2%	—	7.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	58%	73.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	72.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	68.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	68.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	67.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗