KIND / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

50%

17%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.5¢Risks 33.55u

ICONNO 66.5¢Risks 66.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.45u · ICON −66.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:20:52+00:00	89.4%	29.4%	77.7%	47.5%	36.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	89.4%	29.4%	77.7%	47.5%	36.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	89.4%	29.4%	77.7%	47.5%	36.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	78.8%	29.4%	77.7%	47.5%	36.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	78.8%	29.4%	77.6%	47.5%	37.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:22+00:00	78.8%	31.3%	77.6%	47.5%	37.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	78.8%	31.3%	77.6%	47.5%	37.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	78.8%	31.3%	77.6%	47.5%	37.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	78.8%	31.3%	70.5%	47.5%	37.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	78.8%	31.3%	70.5%	47.5%	37.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	78.8%	31.3%	70.5%	47.5%	37.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	71.5%	31.3%	70.5%	20.6%	55.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	71.5%	31.3%	70.5%	20.6%	55.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	71.5%	31.3%	70.5%	20.6%	55.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	71.5%	31.3%	70.5%	20.6%	55.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	71.5%	31.3%	70.5%	20.6%	55.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	71.5%	31.3%	64.0%	20.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	71.5%	31.3%	64.0%	20.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	71.5%	31.3%	64.0%	20.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	76.7%	31.3%	64.0%	20.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	76.7%	31.3%	64.0%	20.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	76.7%	31.3%	64.0%	20.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	76.7%	31.3%	64.0%	20.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	76.7%	31.3%	64.0%	20.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	76.7%	31.3%	62.5%	20.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	76.7%	31.3%	62.5%	20.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	76.7%	31.3%	62.5%	20.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T07:49:49+00:00	84.6%	31.3%	62.5%	27.2%	65.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	84.6%	31.3%	62.5%	27.2%	65.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	84.6%	31.3%	62.5%	27.2%	65.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	84.6%	31.3%	62.5%	27.2%	65.4%
2026-10-15T10:53:03+00:00	84.6%	31.3%	62.5%	27.2%	65.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00	84.6%	31.3%	69.6%	27.2%	65.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	84.6%	16.2%	69.6%	27.2%	65.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:23+00:00	84.6%	16.2%	69.6%	27.2%	65.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	76.0%	16.2%	69.6%	27.2%	65.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	76.0%	16.2%	69.6%	27.2%	65.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:13+00:00	80.8%	16.1%	65.8%	39.8%	58.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	80.8%	16.1%	66.6%	39.8%	58.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	80.8%	16.1%	66.6%	39.8%	58.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	80.8%	16.1%	66.6%	39.8%	58.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	86.2%	16.1%	66.6%	39.8%	44.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	86.2%	16.1%	66.6%	39.8%	44.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	86.2%	16.1%	66.6%	39.8%	44.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	86.2%	16.1%	66.6%	39.8%	44.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	86.2%	16.1%	66.6%	39.8%	44.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	86.2%	15.9%	71.2%	39.8%	44.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	86.2%	15.9%	71.2%	39.8%	44.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	86.2%	15.9%	71.2%	39.8%	44.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:36+00:00	80.1%	15.9%	71.2%	26.7%	44.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	80.1%	15.9%	71.2%	26.7%	44.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:33+00:00	80.1%	15.0%	71.2%	26.7%	44.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	80.1%	15.0%	71.2%	26.7%	44.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	80.1%	15.0%	71.2%	26.7%	44.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	80.1%	15.0%	66.0%	26.7%	44.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	80.1%	15.0%	66.0%	26.7%	44.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	80.1%	15.0%	66.0%	26.7%	44.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:03+00:00	76.6%	15.0%	66.0%	26.7%	37.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:31+00:00	76.6%	15.0%	66.0%	26.7%	37.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	76.6%	15.0%	66.0%	26.7%	37.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	76.6%	15.0%	66.0%	26.7%	37.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	76.6%	15.0%	66.0%	37.8%	37.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	76.6%	15.0%	72.0%	37.8%	37.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	76.6%	15.0%	72.0%	37.8%	37.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	76.6%	15.0%	72.0%	37.8%	37.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	77.2%	15.0%	72.0%	37.8%	37.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	77.2%	15.0%	72.0%	37.8%	37.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	77.2%	15.0%	72.0%	37.8%	37.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	77.2%	15.0%	72.0%	37.8%	37.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:52+00:00	77.2%	15.0%	72.0%	37.8%	37.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	77.2%	15.0%	71.2%	37.8%	37.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	77.2%	15.0%	71.2%	37.8%	37.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	77.2%	15.0%	71.2%	37.8%	37.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:00	74.4%	15.0%	71.2%	26.8%	17.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	74.4%	15.0%	71.2%	26.8%	17.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	74.4%	15.0%	71.2%	26.8%	17.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	74.4%	15.0%	71.2%	26.8%	17.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	74.4%	15.0%	71.2%	26.8%	17.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	74.4%	19.7%	72.3%	26.8%	17.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	74.4%	19.7%	72.3%	26.8%	17.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	74.4%	19.7%	72.3%	26.8%	17.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	66.1%	19.7%	72.3%	26.8%	17.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	66.1%	19.7%	72.2%	26.8%	17.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:50+00:00	66.1%	18.7%	72.2%	26.8%	17.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	66.1%	18.7%	72.2%	26.8%	17.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	66.1%	18.7%	71.3%	26.8%	17.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	66.1%	18.7%	71.3%	26.8%	17.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	66.1%	18.7%	71.3%	26.8%	17.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	66.1%	18.7%	71.3%	26.8%	17.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	56.9%	18.7%	71.3%	21.8%	11.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	56.9%	18.7%	71.3%	21.8%	11.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	56.9%	18.7%	71.3%	21.8%	11.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	56.9%	18.7%	71.3%	21.8%	11.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	56.9%	18.7%	58.5%	21.8%	11.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	56.9%	18.7%	58.5%	21.8%	11.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	56.9%	18.7%	58.5%	21.8%	11.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	56.9%	18.7%	58.5%	21.8%	11.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	58.6%	18.7%	58.5%	21.8%	11.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	58.6%	18.7%	58.5%	21.8%	11.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	58.6%	18.7%	58.5%	21.8%	11.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:07+00:00	58.6%	18.7%	58.5%	21.8%	11.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	58.6%	18.7%	57.4%	21.8%	11.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	58.6%	18.7%	57.4%	21.8%	11.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	58.6%	18.7%	57.4%	21.8%	11.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	58.6%	18.7%	57.4%	21.8%	11.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00	60.1%	18.7%	57.4%	18.5%	3.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	60.1%	18.7%	57.4%	18.5%	3.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	60.1%	18.7%	57.4%	18.5%	3.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	60.1%	18.7%	57.4%	18.5%	3.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:48+00:00	60.1%	11.2%	58.2%	18.5%	3.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	60.1%	11.2%	58.2%	18.5%	3.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:45+00:00	60.1%	11.2%	58.2%	18.5%	3.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	60.1%	11.2%	58.2%	18.5%	3.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	58.3%	11.9%	58.2%	18.5%	3.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00	58.3%	11.9%	58.2%	18.5%	3.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	58.3%	8.9%	58.2%	18.5%	3.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	58.3%	8.9%	58.2%	18.5%	3.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	58.3%	8.9%	54.7%	18.5%	3.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	58.3%	8.9%	54.7%	18.5%	3.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	58.3%	8.9%	54.7%	18.5%	3.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	56.5%	8.9%	54.7%	17.3%	8.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	56.5%	8.9%	54.7%	17.3%	8.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	56.5%	8.9%	54.7%	17.3%	8.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	56.5%	8.9%	54.7%	17.3%	8.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	56.5%	8.9%	54.7%	17.3%	8.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	56.5%	8.9%	50.0%	17.3%	8.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	56.5%	8.9%	50.0%	17.3%	8.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	56.5%	8.9%	50.0%	17.3%	8.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	58.3%	8.9%	50.0%	17.3%	8.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	58.3%	8.9%	50.0%	17.3%	8.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	58.3%	8.9%	50.0%	17.3%	8.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	58.3%	8.9%	50.0%	17.3%	8.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	58%	73.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	72.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	68.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	68.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	67.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗