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KIND / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
40%
WN2
19%
HRES
7%
EPS
5%
ICON
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 21.1¢Risks 21.05u
VS
ICONNO 79.0¢Risks 78.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.95u · ICON −78.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 44.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 8.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-06 06:0010-13 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0014.9%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:001.3%————4.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:000.9%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:009.1%————4.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:000.7%————3.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0014.9%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:005.5%————7.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:007.9%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:007.9%————9.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:006.9%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0011.0%————14.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0027.4%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0039.5%————17.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0018.2%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0026.9%————23.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0010.6%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0035.0%————25.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0047.2%—5.1%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0020.4%————26.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0021.7%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:003.6%—1.8%——28.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:005.2%—44.1%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:003.5%————17.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:004.6%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0029.1%—3.6%——18.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0038.6%—15.2%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0037.8%—1.3%——17.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0044.7%—13.6%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0045.3%2.2%10.8%——12.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0031.4%—40.4%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0023.5%10.2%15.8%0.3%—5.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0028.3%—20.4%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0036.4%18.9%10.0%1.7%—5.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0025.0%—15.1%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0040.2%12.2%11.4%3.3%—7.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0030.6%—12.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0035.9%6.7%9.0%3.0%—3.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0027.0%0.0%6.2%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0022.5%3.4%8.0%1.6%—4.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0022.6%0.8%8.2%——0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0017.8%1.2%7.0%0.9%—3.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0011.2%0.5%8.5%——2.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:007.0%0.4%7.3%0.3%—1.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:007.0%0.5%6.7%——1.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:006.5%0.2%6.5%0.1%—1.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:005.4%0.4%7.6%——0.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:004.4%0.5%5.2%0.1%—0.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:004.7%2.5%5.8%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:009.0%4.5%7.0%0.1%—1.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:007.9%4.0%7.1%0.0%—0.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:009.4%1.9%6.5%0.1%0.0%0.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0011.9%4.0%8.2%0.1%—0.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010.6%3.3%7.5%0.2%8.9%1.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:006.0%—7.2%0.1%—0.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single40%75.5°F3.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 219%73.9°F2.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES7%70.9°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble5%70.8°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast4%71.0°F3.1°F2026-10-20 14:00Pending
ICON2%69.4°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend<1%70.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗