KIND / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

46%

15%

12%

12%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 29.2¢Risks 29.15u

EPSNO 70.8¢Risks 70.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +70.85u · EPS −70.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	—	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	11.0%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	40.3%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	77.7%	6.4%	29.4%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	46.5%	43.0%	4.2%	—	37.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	16.5%	42.0%	2.9%	—	22.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	13.4%	49.2%	18.4%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	9.3%	49.2%	13.1%	—	23.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	0.0%	47.5%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	1.9%	33.0%	4.5%	—	11.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	2.0%	35.8%	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	4.3%	37.1%	3.9%	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	5.2%	53.6%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	4.1%	36.4%	1.6%	—	7.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	10.0%	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	15.9%	42.3%	4.2%	—	12.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	11.9%	47.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	10.8%	44.9%	1.7%	—	11.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	19.8%	54.2%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	12.5%	51.1%	3.8%	41.3%	15.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	44.4%	0.0%	—	7.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	72.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	72.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	67.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	12%	66.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	68.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗